Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 75

Baltimore Ravens 17 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(14:54) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to NO 23, Center-46-N.Moore. 89-R.Shaheed to NO 31 for 8 yards (14-K.Hamilton). INJURY UPDATE: NO 20-P.Werner, ankle, QUESTIONABLE; NO 92-M.Davenport, calf, QUESTIONABLE; BAL 15-D.Jackson, hamstring, QUESTIONABLE to return.

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model