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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 69

New Orleans Saints 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(8:32) 4-B.Gillikin punts 45 yards to BAL 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.83 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 27, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP