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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 19

New Orleans Saints 3 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 3-W.Lutz 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.50 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 19, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 29, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model