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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 14

Baltimore Ravens 14 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 9-J.Tucker 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 14, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model