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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 52

Baltimore Ravens 27 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(:29) 11-J.Stout punts 41 yards to NO 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.68 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 52, worth -0.55 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP