4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 11-J.Stout punts 33 yards to NO 22, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model