Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 6 – Baltimore Ravens 17

(13:18) 4-B.Gillikin punts 38 yards to BAL 37, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.18 EP
70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model