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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Steve Wilks
Sunday 2022-10-23 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -13.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

TB
67.4%
CAR
32.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to TB: Phillip Walker (CAR) -0.278 vs Tom Brady (TB) +0.119 EPA/dropback
  • CAR offense: -0.190 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.027 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 24
–
CAR 18
Projected margin: TB by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

TB

Cameron Brate TE Out Neck
Akiem Hicks DT Out Foot
Julio Jones WR Out Knee
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Out Quadricep
Mike Edwards S Questionable Elbow
Carlton Davis CB Questionable Hip
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Ankle

CAR

Matt Ioannidis DT Doubtful Concussion
Baker Mayfield QB Doubtful Ankle
Pat Elflein C Questionable Hip
Taylor Moton T Questionable Knee
C.J. Henderson CB Questionable Concussion
Jaycee Horn CB Questionable Ribs
Donte Jackson CB Questionable Ankle
Frankie Luvu LB Questionable Shoulder
Laviska Shenault WR Questionable Hamstring
Sean Chandler S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 3
–
CAR 21

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 00:35 TD CAR (:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep left to 2-D.Moore for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – CAR 6
  • Q3 03:15 TD CAR (3:15) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left guard for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – CAR 13
  • Q4 13:41 FG TB (13:41) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – CAR 14
  • Q4 09:39 TD CAR (9:39) (Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass deep right to 82-T.Tremble for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – CAR 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:52) 5-J.Camarda punts 55 yards to CAR 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (11:09) 10-J.Hekker punts 62 yards to TB 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-J.Darden to TB 27 for 8 yards (42-S.Franklin).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 56%

    (6:54) 5-J.Camarda punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (4:32) 10-J.Hekker punts 60 yards to TB 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at TB 22 for 11 yards (30-C.Hubbard).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 37%

    (14:55) 5-J.Camarda punts 37 yards to CAR 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 53%

    (7:55) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 14 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:25) 5-J.Camarda punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (14:06) 10-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-J.Darden to TB 28 for 20 yards (45-G.Ricci).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 26%

    (11:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 32 yards to CAR 20, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:52) 10-J.Hekker punts 55 yards to TB 23, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-J.Darden to TB 30 for 7 yards (34-S.Chandler).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 86%

    (6:24) 7-L.Fournette right end to CAR 25 for no gain (24-C.Henderson, 55-C.Littleton). CAR-24-C.Henderson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:08) 10-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to TB 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (4:11) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to CAR 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 12-S.Smith to CAR 23 for no gain (98-A.Nelson).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 96%

    (14:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 17-R.Gage to CAR 8 for 4 yards (26-D.Jackson). CAR-26-D.Jackson was injured during the play.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (13:41) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 82%

    (7:21) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 88-C.Otton.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 38 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 61%

    (1:11) 10-J.Hekker punts 25 yards to TB 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.