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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 62

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 5-J.Camarda punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.57 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model