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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:06) 10-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to TB 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-J.Darden to TB 28 for 20 yards (45-G.Ricci).

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.94 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 69, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 27, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model