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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:32) 10-J.Hekker punts 60 yards to TB 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 1-J.Darden pushed ob at TB 22 for 11 yards (30-C.Hubbard).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.67 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP