Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(5:08) 10-J.Hekker punts 56 yards to TB 17, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.75 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model