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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:54) 5-J.Camarda punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-97-Z.Triner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.58 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP