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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 65

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:52) 5-J.Camarda punts 55 yards to CAR 10, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.39 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 65, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model