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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 7-L.Fournette right end to CAR 25 for no gain (24-C.Henderson, 55-C.Littleton). CAR-24-C.Henderson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.37 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model