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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(14:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 17-R.Gage to CAR 8 for 4 yards (26-D.Jackson). CAR-26-D.Jackson was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.28 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model