4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:42) 5-J.Camarda punts 32 yards to CAR 20, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.77 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP