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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 76

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 5-J.Camarda punts 53 yards to CAR 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 12-S.Smith to CAR 23 for no gain (98-A.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.92 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model