TB @ PIT — 4th & Data

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HC Todd Bowles

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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin

Sunday 2022-10-16 · 13:00 Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -10.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

58.0%

PIT

42.0%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

PIT offense: -0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
QB edge to TB: Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.012 vs Tom Brady (TB) +0.122 EPA/dropback
TB defense: -0.118 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
TB offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 23

–

PIT 20

Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

TB

Akiem Hicks DT Out Foot

Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Out Quadricep

Logan Ryan S Out Foot

Julio Jones WR Doubtful Knee

Shaquil Barrett LB Questionable Illness

Mike Edwards S Questionable Elbow

PIT

Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out Knee

DeMarvin Leal DE Out Knee

Cameron Sutton CB Out Hamstring

Ahkello Witherspoon CB Out Hamstring

Pat Freiermuth TE Out Concussion

Levi Wallace CB Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 18

–

PIT 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:44 TD PIT (7:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – PIT 6
Q1 02:54 FG TB (2:54) 3-R.Succop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – PIT 7
Q2 11:04 FG TB (11:04) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 6 – PIT 7
Q2 04:12 FG PIT (4:12) 9-C.Boswell 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TB 6 – PIT 10
Q2 00:04 FG TB (:04) 3-R.Succop 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 9 – PIT 10
Q3 13:58 FG PIT (13:58) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TB 9 – PIT 13
Q3 07:26 FG TB (7:26) 3-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 12 – PIT 13
Q4 09:59 TD PIT (9:59) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 11-C.Claypool for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – PIT 19
Q4 04:45 TD TB (4:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 7-L.Fournette for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 18 – PIT 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(14:09) 5-J.Camarda punts 40 yards to PIT 34, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.
Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 11

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 96%

(9:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to TB 10 for 1 yard (45-D.White; 54-L.David).
Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 12

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

(2:54) 3-R.Succop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Q1 PIT 4th & 19 at the 96

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(1:35) 6-P.Harvin punts 52 yards to TB 44, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Darden to TB 46 for 2 yards (13-M.Boykin).
Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 9

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

(11:04) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Q2 PIT 4th & 11 at the 37

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 63%

(4:12) 9-C.Boswell 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP

p(convert) 62%

(2:52) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to PIT 20, Center-97-Z.Triner. 82-S.Sims to PIT 26 for 6 yards (10-S.Miller).
Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(2:12) 6-P.Harvin punts 53 yards to TB 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Darden to TB 25 for 6 yards (27-M.Allen; 28-M.Killebrew).
Q2 TB 4th & 11 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(:54) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to PIT 14, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(:32) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to TB 43, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Darden to TB 49 for 6 yards (89-G.Olszewski).
Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 7

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

(13:58) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 6

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

(7:26) 3-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 59

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(4:25) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to TB 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT.
Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 76

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP

p(convert) 73%

(2:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to PIT 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 82-S.Sims to PIT 48 for 24 yards (59-G.Avery, 29-R.White).
Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 47

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 37%

(:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 30 yards to TB 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 75

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP

p(convert) 63%

(13:50) 5-J.Camarda punts 39 yards to PIT 36, Center-97-Z.Triner. 82-S.Sims to PIT 29 for -7 yards (88-C.Otton; 27-Z.McCollum).
Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 29

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 68% p(FG) 80%

(6:25) 7-L.Fournette right end to PIT 22 for 7 yards (21-T.Norwood).
Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 13

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

(5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 29-R.White to PIT 11 for 2 yards (37-E.Riley).