Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- PIT offense: -0.125 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- QB edge to TB: Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.012 vs Tom Brady (TB) +0.122 EPA/dropback
- TB offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- PIT defense: +0.007 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 6
TB
PIT
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:44 TD PIT (7:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 22-N.Harris for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – PIT 6
- Q1 02:54 FG TB (2:54) 3-R.Succop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 3 – PIT 7
- Q2 11:04 FG TB (11:04) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 6 – PIT 7
- Q2 04:12 FG PIT (4:12) 9-C.Boswell 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TB 6 – PIT 10
- Q2 00:04 FG TB (:04) 3-R.Succop 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 9 – PIT 10
- Q3 13:58 FG PIT (13:58) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. TB 9 – PIT 13
- Q3 07:26 FG TB (7:26) 3-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. TB 12 – PIT 13
- Q4 09:59 TD PIT (9:59) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 11-C.Claypool for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – PIT 19
- Q4 04:45 TD TB (4:45) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 7-L.Fournette for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 18 – PIT 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:09) 5-J.Camarda punts 40 yards to PIT 34, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 62% p(FG) 96%
(9:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to TB 10 for 1 yard (45-D.White; 54-L.David).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 12Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%
(2:54) 3-R.Succop 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PIT 4th & 19 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(1:35) 6-P.Harvin punts 52 yards to TB 44, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Darden to TB 46 for 2 yards (13-M.Boykin).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%
(11:04) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 11 at the 37Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 59%
(4:12) 9-C.Boswell 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EPp(convert) 62%
(2:52) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to PIT 20, Center-97-Z.Triner. 82-S.Sims to PIT 26 for 6 yards (10-S.Miller).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(2:12) 6-P.Harvin punts 53 yards to TB 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Darden to TB 25 for 6 yards (27-M.Allen; 28-M.Killebrew).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 TB 4th & 11 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(:54) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to PIT 14, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:32) 6-P.Harvin punts 42 yards to TB 43, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Darden to TB 49 for 6 yards (89-G.Olszewski).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%
(13:58) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%
(7:26) 3-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(4:25) 6-P.Harvin punts 44 yards to TB 15, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT.
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Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 76Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EPp(convert) 73%
(2:19) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to PIT 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 82-S.Sims to PIT 48 for 24 yards (59-G.Avery, 29-R.White).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 5 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 33%
(:38) 6-P.Harvin punts 30 yards to TB 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.
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Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 75Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 63%
(13:50) 5-J.Camarda punts 39 yards to PIT 36, Center-97-Z.Triner. 82-S.Sims to PIT 29 for -7 yards (88-C.Otton; 27-Z.McCollum).
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Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 29Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 78%
(6:25) 7-L.Fournette right end to PIT 22 for 7 yards (21-T.Norwood).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 13Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 95%
(5:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 29-R.White to PIT 11 for 2 yards (37-E.Riley).
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