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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4th & 1 at the 29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20
What Actually Happened
(6:25) 7-L.Fournette right end to PIT 22 for 7 yards (21-T.Norwood).
The Three Options
GO
+2.51 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.23 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.15 EP
KICK
+1.19 EP
- 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
- 22% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT
-0.14 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
