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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 37

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 9-C.Boswell 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.20 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model