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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to PIT 20, Center-97-Z.Triner. 82-S.Sims to PIT 26 for 6 yards (10-S.Miller).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.40 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP