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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 9-C.Boswell 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.26 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model