4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 11

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-J.Warren up the middle to TB 10 for 1 yard (45-D.White; 54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO +3.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.51 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +2.30 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.42 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model