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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 3-R.Succop 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model