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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 3-R.Succop 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP