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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 6-P.Harvin punts 53 yards to TB 19, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-J.Darden to TB 25 for 6 yards (27-M.Allen; 28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.00 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model