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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:50) 5-J.Camarda punts 39 yards to PIT 36, Center-97-Z.Triner. 82-S.Sims to PIT 29 for -7 yards (88-C.Otton; 27-Z.McCollum).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.07 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP