Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(14:09) 5-J.Camarda punts 40 yards to PIT 34, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model