4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2022-10-09 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 💨 Windy Spread 14.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

PIT
20.1%
BUF
79.9%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.219 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): +0.181 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PIT 15
–
BUF 28
Projected margin: BUF by 13 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

PIT

Ahkello Witherspoon CB Out Hamstring
Terrell Edmunds S Questionable Concussion
Cameron Sutton CB Questionable Groin

BUF

Christian Benford CB Out Hand
Jamison Crowder WR Out Ankle
Dawson Knox TE Out Foot
Jake Kumerow WR Out Ankle
Jordan Poyer S Out Ribs
Tremaine Edmunds LB Questionable Hamstring
Isaiah McKenzie WR Questionable Concussion
Ed Oliver DT Questionable Ankle
Jordan Phillips DT Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 3
–
BUF 38

Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:09 TD BUF (14:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN [39-M.Fitzpatrick]. PIT 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 05:42 FG PIT (5:42) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – BUF 7
  • Q1 02:45 FG BUF (2:45) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. PIT 3 – BUF 10
  • Q2 09:39 TD BUF (9:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep middle to 13-G.Davis for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – BUF 16
  • Q2 07:24 TD BUF (7:24) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – BUF 23
  • Q2 01:09 TD BUF (1:09) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 10-K.Shakir for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT-42-J.Pierre was injured during the play. PIT 3 – BUF 30
  • Q4 14:11 TD BUF (14:11) 68-B.Hart reported in as eligible. 28-J.Cook up the middle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 3 – BUF 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 20 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 72%

    (12:02) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-D.Leal), Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (5:42) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 92%

    (2:45) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (:48) 6-P.Harvin punts 69 yards to BUF 2, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-27-M.Allen. J.Pierre deflected ball at BUF 1 to keep ball in play.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (9:47) 6-P.Harvin punts 34 yards to BUF 38, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:04) 6-P.Harvin punts 26 yards to BUF 47, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-13-M.Boykin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (3:43) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 20
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 90%

    (10:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short left to 18-D.Johnson (7-T.Johnson).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 13 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 80%

    (:07) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 74%

    (10:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short right to 11-C.Claypool.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (8:35) 8-S.Martin punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 34 yards to BUF 46, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-46-C.Kuntz.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 24%

    (6:35) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 14 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.77 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 82%

    (1:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass incomplete short right [90-S.Lawson]. Thrown away under pressure. Penalty on PIT-8-K.Pickett, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on BUF-57-A.Epenesa, Disqualification, offsetting.