Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 80

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Buffalo Bills 38

(7:36) 6-P.Harvin punts 34 yards to BUF 46, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-46-C.Kuntz.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.51 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 80, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model