Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 71

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Buffalo Bills 10

(:48) 6-P.Harvin punts 69 yards to BUF 2, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-27-M.Allen. J.Pierre deflected ball at BUF 1 to keep ball in play.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model