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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 38 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 8-S.Martin punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 20, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP