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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 6-P.Harvin punts 34 yards to BUF 38, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 10-K.Shakir.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.31 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.68 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 30, worth -1.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP