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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 17

Buffalo Bills 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 2-T.Bass 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.57 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model