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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 20 at the 31

Buffalo Bills 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:02) 2-T.Bass 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (98-D.Leal), Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.29 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model