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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 15

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(3:43) 9-C.Boswell 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.09 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 15, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model