4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 38 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 8-S.Martin punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.60 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP