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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(:07) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.01 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model