Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Buffalo Bills 17

(8:04) 6-P.Harvin punts 26 yards to BUF 47, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-13-M.Boykin.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model