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CLE Away

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
Sunday 2022-09-11 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CLE
46.6%
CAR
53.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • CAR defense: +0.025 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • QB edge to CAR: Baker Mayfield (CAR) -0.058 vs Jacoby Brissett (CLE) -0.098 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CLE 21
–
CAR 22
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CLE

Mike Woods WR Questionable Hamstring
Christopher Hubbard T Questionable Elbow
Jack Conklin T Questionable Knee

CAR

Brandon Smith LB Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 26
–
CAR 24

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:53 TD CLE (10:53) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 27-K.Hunt for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – CAR 0
  • Q2 04:52 TD CLE (4:52) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – CAR 0
  • Q2 02:00 TD CAR (2:00) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – CAR 6
  • Q2 00:24 FG CLE (:24) 3-C.York 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 17 – CAR 7
  • Q3 07:46 FG CLE (7:46) 3-C.York 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 20 – CAR 7
  • Q4 12:58 TD CAR (12:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 20 – CAR 13
  • Q4 06:17 FG CLE (6:17) 3-C.York 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 23 – CAR 14
  • Q4 06:13 TD CAR (6:13) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 3-R.Anderson for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 23 – CAR 20
  • Q4 01:17 FG CAR (1:17) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. CLE 23 – CAR 24
  • Q4 00:13 FG CLE (:13) 3-C.York 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. CLE 26 – CAR 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 11 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:38) 10-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to CLE 35, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-D.Felton to CLE 35 for no gain (42-S.Franklin).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 66%

    (9:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:52) 10-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to CLE 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-D.Felton to CLE 35 for 6 yards (42-S.Franklin).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 53%

    (2:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to CAR 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to CAR 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to CLE 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-D.Felton to CLE 22 for 8 yards (34-S.Chandler; 45-G.Ricci).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (:24) 3-C.York 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 26%

    (11:41) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to 50 for 2 yards (7-S.Thompson; 71-P.Hoskins).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 11 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (7:46) 3-C.York 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 17 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:38) 10-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to CLE 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-D.Felton to CLE 33 for 15 yards (45-G.Ricci; 82-T.Tremble).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to CAR 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at CAR 25 for 10 yards (44-S.Takitaki).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 93%

    (6:17) 3-C.York 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:21) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 12 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (1:17) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 40 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 56%

    (:13) 3-C.York 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.