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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 7 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(4:38) 10-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to CLE 18, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-D.Felton to CLE 33 for 15 yards (45-G.Ricci; 82-T.Tremble).

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.10 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model