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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 23 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.02 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model