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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 18

Cleveland Browns 20 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:17) 3-C.York 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.90 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model