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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 23 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(:13) 3-C.York 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.03 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model