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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 10-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to CLE 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-D.Felton to CLE 22 for 8 yards (34-S.Chandler; 45-G.Ricci).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.08 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model