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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 17 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to 50 for 2 yards (7-S.Thompson; 71-P.Hoskins).

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.76 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.96 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model