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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 36

Cleveland Browns 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.48 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.31 EP
KICK -0.18 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model