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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 8

Cleveland Browns 14 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:24) 3-C.York 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.61 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model