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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 20 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to CAR 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at CAR 25 for 10 yards (44-S.Takitaki).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.09 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model